Weekly Inflation in Pakistan (SPI): What 10 Weeks of PBS Price Data Mean for Online Sellers' Prices and COD Orders

What is weekly inflation in Pakistan right now?

Weekly inflation in Pakistan is measured by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) through the Sensitive Price Indicator, or SPI. Every week PBS collects the prices of 51 essential items from 50 markets in 17 cities. For the week ended October 22, 2026, the latest release at the time of writing, the combined SPI rose 0.65 percent over the previous week and stood 11.85 percent higher than the same week last year.

Out of the 51 items, 19 got more expensive during the week, 12 got cheaper and 20 did not change. The biggest weekly jumps were LPG (up 22.44 percent), chicken (up 12.20 percent) and onions (up 4.19 percent). The biggest drops were tomatoes (down 21.99 percent), petrol (down 3.63 percent) and bananas (down 2.42 percent).

One thing to keep clear: the SPI is not the official monthly CPI inflation figure. It is a short-term, weekly gauge of essentials. That is exactly why it is useful to an online seller. It shows, week by week, how much of your customer's money is being eaten by flour, gas, fuel and food before they ever open your Instagram ad.

Our table: 10 weeks of SPI data in one place

PBS publishes each week as a separate report. The October 22 report carries a 10-week trend, which we have put into one table below. Every figure is from PBS. The reading of the numbers in the next sections is ours.

Our arithmetic on the table: the combined index went from 360.90 to 374.84 in nine weeks, a rise of 3.86 percent. Prices went up in 9 of the 10 weeks. The yearly rate climbed from 8.35 percent in early September to around 11.4 to 12 percent from late September onwards, and it has stayed in that band for five weeks.

Which households face the highest weekly inflation?

PBS splits households into five groups (quintiles) by monthly spending. This is the part of the data most sellers never look at, and it matters for anyone selling online.

Our reading: the top spending group, households spending more than Rs 44,175 a month, is facing the highest yearly increase at 12.69 percent, against 8.45 percent for the lowest group. Fuel helps explain it: petrol, up 44.17 percent in a year, has a weight of 6.70 percent in the combined basket but only 1.47 percent in the lowest group's basket, so it hits better-off households harder. In our view these are also the households most able to place a Rs 2,500 to Rs 5,000 COD order. In simple terms, the customers who usually buy from you are being squeezed hardest on fuel this year.

Put in rupees: something that cost Rs 1,000 a year ago costs about Rs 1,118 now for the average household, and about Rs 1,127 for the top group, based on the PBS yearly changes.

Item by item: essentials vs the things you sell

The SPI includes a few items that online stores also sell, such as branded lawn, shirting, sandals and soap. Putting them next to the essentials shows where your customer's extra rupees are going. All prices are PBS national averages for the week ended October 22, 2026, compared with the week ended October 23, 2025.

Example: take a household that buys one LPG cylinder, one 20 kg flour bag and 5 kg of chicken. At PBS average prices, that cost Rs 6,825.62 a year ago and Rs 11,508.23 now, an extra Rs 4,682.61 (68.6 percent more). Over the same year, three metres of branded printed lawn went from Rs 1,987.62 to Rs 2,048.40, just Rs 60.78 more.

That gap is the whole story for a clothing or lifestyle seller. Your customer's essentials bill has jumped by thousands, while the shop price of what you sell has hardly moved. Your customer has less spare money, and the market price of your category has not given you room to raise prices much.

Five things the SPI numbers tell an online seller

1. Do not raise prices by the headline number. The headline is 11.85 percent, but branded lawn in the SPI is up only 3.06 percent a year. If your category sits near the low end, a big price rise makes you look expensive next to market prices.
2. Fuel is the cost to watch for delivery. Petrol is up 44.17 percent and diesel 41.56 percent in a year, even after last week's drop of Rs 14.39 a litre in petrol. Courier and rider costs follow fuel, so check your courier's current tariff and any fuel adjustment before you set free-delivery thresholds.
3. Your best customers are feeling it most. The top spending group's yearly increase (12.69 percent) is the highest of all five groups. Expect more price comparison, more abandoned carts and more people saying no at the door if the order total surprised them.
4. Big weekly swings hit the home budget suddenly. LPG went from Rs 5,154.16 to Rs 6,310.76 in a single week. A shock like this can make a customer who ordered on Monday refuse the parcel on Thursday. Confirm orders quickly and keep delivery time short.
5. The SPI is a free weekly signal. PBS publishes it every week; the week ended Thursday, October 22 came out the next day. Watching it for five minutes a week tells you more about your customer's wallet than most paid reports.

What to do this week

1. Find your category in the SPI. If you sell clothing, footwear or personal care, compare your price rise over the last year with the PBS item changes in the table above. If you are well above them, test a lower price or a bundle instead.
2. Use bundles and quantity offers instead of a flat price rise. A two-piece or three-piece offer raises the order value without changing the single-item price customers compare.
3. Show the full price, delivery included, before the order is placed. With essentials up sharply, surprise at the door turns into a returned parcel (RTO).
4. Confirm COD orders the same day and dispatch fast, so the order reaches the customer before the next price shock in their weekly budget.
5. Keep a weekly sheet with four columns: week ended, SPI yearly change from PBS, your orders, and your delivered percentage. After two months you will see whether your delivery rate moves with the cost of living.

If you run a Shopify store, RabbitROI shows return (RTO) rates by courier, city and product, so you can see whether returns are rising in the same weeks the SPI jumps.

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