Petrol Price Increase and Your Delivery Cost: What 9 Days of Daily Fuel Prices Mean for Pakistani Online Sellers

What happened to petrol and diesel prices this week

The petrol price increase this month has been small each day but steady. On October 1 petrol was Rs 387.40 per litre. From today, October 9, it is Rs 398.96. That is Rs 11.56 more per litre in nine days, or about 3 percent. If you deliver your own orders on a motorbike, or your courier keeps talking about fuel, this post shows what the change really does to your delivery cost, with a worked Rs example and a short list of things to do this week.

Since July, prices no longer change every two weeks. Profit by Pakistan Today reported on July 20 that OGRA now calculates and publishes petrol and diesel prices daily, based on a seven-working-day rolling average of international Platts Arab Gulf prices, and does not need prior approval from the federal government for each change. Prices announced on Friday stay the same on Saturday and Sunday. PakWheels adds that prices also stay unchanged on public holidays.

Here is how the two fuels moved in October, from reports in Profit by Pakistan Today, Dawn and PakWheels:

The Oct 7 row is worked out from Dawn's report that petrol went up Rs 1.82 and diesel went down 91 paisa on October 8. Dawn also reports that the government collects Rs 114 per litre in taxes and duties on petrol and Rs 100 per litre on diesel.

Why petrol and diesel matter differently to an online seller

The two fuels are moving in opposite directions this month, and they touch different parts of your delivery chain.

• Petrol runs the last mile. Riders who pick up and drop parcels inside Lahore, Karachi or Rawalpindi mostly ride petrol motorbikes. If you deliver your own orders in your city, petrol is your cost directly.
• Diesel runs the long haul. Intercity trucks and loaders that move parcels from Karachi to Peshawar or Lahore to Quetta mostly run on diesel. Diesel is about 1.2 percent cheaper than on October 1.
• Your courier's price to you is not fuel alone. It also covers staff, rent, sorting and their own margin, so a 3 percent change in petrol is not a 3 percent change in your courier bill.

The bigger picture is that fuel is still far above where it started this year. Dawn reports that petrol was Rs 266 in the first week of March and peaked at Rs 458.41 on April 3, after the US-Iran war broke out on February 28. Diesel went from Rs 281 to a peak of Rs 520.35 on the same day. Today's petrol price is about 13 percent below that peak but about 50 percent above early March. If your delivery charges and product prices were set in February, they were set for a different country.

Example: how much does this week's increase cost per delivery?

Example, with assumed numbers. Replace them with your own. You run a small clothing store in Lahore and one rider delivers your local COD orders on a 70cc motorbike. Assume the bike does 40 km per litre, the rider covers 80 km a day, makes 25 deliveries a day and works 26 days a month.

Two lessons come out of this example. First, this week's increase adds less than Rs 1 per delivery and about Rs 600 a month. That is not a reason to change your product prices tomorrow. Second, compared with early March, fuel per delivery is up by more than Rs 10, or about 50 percent. If you never updated your delivery charge since then, that gap is the real leak.

Now look at returns. A COD parcel that comes back burns fuel twice and earns nothing. In this example, if 5 of the 25 daily deliveries are refused, the same 2 litres of petrol buys only 20 sales. Fuel per completed sale then becomes Rs 39.90 instead of Rs 31.92 at today's price, and more if the rider goes back a second time. Cutting failed deliveries saves more fuel money than any price change in petrol this month.

Will couriers raise their rates?

We did not find any public announcement this month from a major Pakistani courier about a new fuel surcharge. Most couriers do not publish their business rate cards, and many charge a fuel surcharge as a separate line or a percentage on top of the base charge, written into your agreement. With prices now changing every working day, a courier is more likely to adjust that surcharge from time to time than to send you a new rate card.

Example, with assumed numbers. If your courier charges you Rs 250 per parcel and the fuel surcharge in your agreement goes up by 2 percentage points, that is Rs 5 more per parcel. On 1,000 parcels a month, including returns that you also pay for, that is Rs 5,000 a month. Small per parcel, but worth knowing before it shows up on an invoice.

What to do this week

1. Open your last two courier invoices. Find the fuel surcharge line or percentage. Write it down with the date so you can see if it changes.
2. Message your courier account manager and ask in writing whether the fuel surcharge will change in October or November. A written answer helps you plan 11.11 and wedding season pricing.
3. If you deliver yourself, add one column to your sheet for the petrol price on the day. Friday's price holds for Saturday and Sunday, so you only need to note it on working days.
4. Set a rule instead of reacting daily. For example: recheck your delivery charge only when petrol moves Rs 20 or more from the price you last used in your costing. Today's Rs 11.56 move does not cross that line.
5. Recheck your delivery charge against March. If your delivery charge or free shipping threshold was set before the March jump, recalculate it with today's fuel and courier costs.
6. Confirm COD orders before booking them. A call or WhatsApp message before dispatch avoids paying forward and return charges on orders that were never going to be accepted.
7. Look at returns by city and courier. If one city or courier returns far more parcels, that is where your fuel and shipping money goes. RabbitROI shows return rates by courier, city and product, and net profit per ad campaign after returns and shipping, if you want this without a spreadsheet.

Should you pass the fuel cost to customers?

Not for this week's move alone. Less than Rs 1 per delivery in the example above is too small to justify a new price, and frequent price changes make customers suspicious, especially on Facebook and Instagram where they compare screenshots.

What does make sense is a once-a-season review. Before 11.11, check three numbers: your total delivery cost per completed order (including returns), the delivery charge you show to customers, and the order value at which you offer free delivery. If the gap between the first and the second has grown since March, close it with a small change in the delivery charge or a slightly higher free delivery threshold, not with a jump in product prices.

Remember that your customers are paying the same petrol price. When fuel costs more, people think twice before buying something they might return. Clear photos, clear sizes and a confirmed address do more to protect your margin than a Rs 10 price change.

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