Consumer Confidence in Pakistan 2026: What 13 Months of SBP Survey Data Say About Your COD Customers' Spending

What is consumer confidence in Pakistan right now?

Consumer confidence in Pakistan is the closest thing an online seller has to a public reading of their customer's mood. Every month the State Bank of Pakistan asks households how they see the economy, their own finances, prices, jobs and big purchases. The September 2026 survey, the latest report we could find at the time of writing, was carried out from September 1 to 11 and covered 1,449 households.

The headline: the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 36.6, up just 0.2 points from August. Households expected inflation of 18.6 percent, up from 17.1 percent. Their view of their own financial conditions slipped to 39.4. Expected unemployment rose to 72.9. The index of whether it is a good time to buy durable goods improved to 34.8 from 33.3.

How to read these numbers: apart from inflation expectations, which are a percentage, SBP reports them as diffusion indices. Above 50 means more households feel positive than negative. Exactly 50 means the two sides are equal. Below 50 means negative views win. For expected unemployment, a number above 50 means more people expect unemployment to rise. One more note from SBP: since July 2025 the questions look 12 months ahead instead of 6, so very old readings are not fully comparable.

Our table: 13 months of SBP consumer confidence data

SBP publishes each month as a separate one-page report with small charts. We pulled the series from the September 2026 report into one table so you can see the whole year at a glance. Every figure below is from SBP; the reading of the numbers in the next section is ours.

The September report also splits confidence into current conditions (36.0) and expected conditions (37.2). Both have stayed below 40 since March 2026, after reaching 42.9 and 43.1 in February.

Five things the numbers tell an online seller

1. Every reading is below 50, every month. In 13 months not one index crossed into positive territory. Your customer has been cautious for a full year, not just this season. Plan your offers for a careful buyer, not an excited one.
2. February 2026 was the high point, then it broke. Confidence peaked at 43.0 and own financial conditions at 47.4 in February. By May they had fallen to 35.5 and 36.4, while expected inflation jumped from 15.5 percent to 23.3 percent. Since then the recovery has been tiny: confidence has moved only between 35.5 and 36.6 for six months.
3. Households feel prices rising about twice as fast as the official number. In September 2026 households expected 18.6 percent inflation, while actual CPI inflation for September, reported from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data, was 10.26 percent. A year earlier the gap was wider: 22.5 percent expected against 5.76 percent actual. Your customer feels poorer than the official data says, and that feeling is what decides whether they pay the rider.
4. Own finances are 8 points weaker than in February. The financial conditions index fell from 47.4 to 39.4. This is the number closest to the question that matters at the door: does this household have spare cash this week?
5. Big purchases are hard in every month. The good-time-to-buy-durables index never went above 37.6 (June 2026) and is at 34.8 now. If you sell expensive items, such as appliances, furniture or premium gadgets, you are selling against the strongest headwind in the survey.

One honest limit: this is a national survey of about 1,450 households. It does not tell you about your own customers, your city or your category. Use it as weather, not as a forecast for your store.

Why low confidence hits COD sellers harder

With prepaid orders, the decision to buy happens once, at checkout. With cash on delivery it happens twice: when the customer taps Order and again when the rider shows up two to five days later. Low confidence and high expected inflation make that second decision weaker. A customer who felt fine on Monday may have paid an electricity bill or a school fee by Thursday and now says they did not order, or asks the rider to come back later.

So a weak consumer mood often shows up first in your return-to-origin (RTO) rate, not in your order count. Ads can still bring orders. The leak is between order and cash.

Example (illustrative numbers, not from any real store). You sell a Rs 4,800 product on COD. Product cost is Rs 2,600, delivery Rs 300 per parcel each way, and ad spend works out to Rs 700 per order placed. A returned parcel costs delivery both ways and the product goes back into stock.

Five more refusals per 100 orders cut profit in this example by Rs 12,500, about 22 percent, with the same ads and the same product. That is why, in a year where household finances sit below 40 on the SBP index, protecting delivery rate is worth more than chasing extra orders.

What to do with this data this month

1. Check your RTO rate by product and by price band. If your higher-priced items are coming back more often than cheaper ones, the durables index says you are not alone. Compare the last three months with February, when confidence was at its high.
2. Offer a lower entry price, not just a discount. A smaller size, a single unit instead of a pack, or a basic version lets a cautious buyer say yes. Keep the bigger option for those who want it.
3. Use quantity offers to lift order value without lifting the first price the customer sees. RabbitROI's one-page COD form supports bundles and quantity offers, which lets you show a single unit first and a 2-pack as an option.
4. Confirm orders before dispatch, especially high-value ones. A short WhatsApp or call confirmation catches the customer who has already changed their mind before you pay for the parcel.
5. Time big pushes to when money arrives. Salary days at the start of the month and remittance inflows matter more when finances are tight. Our earlier remittances post covers the SBP data on this.
6. Show price clearly and early. When households expect 18.6 percent inflation, a surprise delivery charge at the door is a reason to refuse. Put the full amount, including delivery, on the product page and the order form.
7. Track the next SBP report. Watch two numbers: own financial conditions (39.4 now) and inflation expectations (18.6 now). If finances climb back toward the mid-40s, as in late 2025, it is a better time to test higher-priced products.

If you want to see which products and cities are dragging down your delivery rate, RabbitROI shows return rates by courier, city and product, and net profit per ad campaign after returns.

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