Smog in Lahore 2026: What the Smog Season Means for Online Sellers' Deliveries, Riders and the 11.11 Sale

Smog in Lahore this week: the numbers

Smog in Lahore is back, and for online sellers it is not just a health story. On the night of Wednesday, October 14, Lahore's US AQI reached 210 around 10pm, which IQAir classes as very unhealthy. The worst single station, the Urban Unit in Lahore Cantonment, read 298. The Express Tribune reported the next day that the city's weekly peak on the official dashboard was 218, reached at 3am, and that hospitals were seeing more patients affected by pollution.

The readings swing a lot by hour and by neighbourhood. At 4pm on October 15, the Punjab EPA dashboard showed Lahore at 102, down from the night before. On the same day, Shahdara read 156 while Barki Road read 78. So do not read one number and decide the season is over or that the city is shut. Smog is a pattern that builds over weeks.

It is also not only Lahore. Here are Punjab EPA readings for some of the cities sellers ship to most, from two different days this week.

These are the province's own figures. IQAir's figures for the same night were higher, because the two use different stations and methods. Either way, central and south Punjab is already in the unhealthy range on bad nights, and it is only mid-October.

What the government has done so far

There has been no lockdown and no school closure for smog in 2026 so far. A guide checking official notices said no school closure order had been issued as of October 3, and we found none since. What has happened is enforcement, and some of it touches anyone who runs delivery bikes.

• Vehicle checks: on October 7, a directive from the Punjab Police headquarters told all traffic officers to run joint checks with the EPA and the Transport Department against smoke-emitting vehicles. It says all vehicles, including motorcycles, must have working headlights, rear lights, fog lights and indicators. Loaders and commercial vehicles must show reflective tape, and loads like sand must be covered.
• Stubble burning: on October 12, the Punjab EPA said it had placed 67 Quick Response Units with fire bowsers along major motorway routes in 10 hotspot districts, timed with the rice harvest.
• Factories and kilns: in one 24-hour period reported on October 15, the EPA inspected 233 industrial units and 434 brick kilns, and sealed 16 units and kilns.

None of this stops your parcels today. But it tells you the province is treating the season seriously, and past seasons show what can come next if the air gets worse.

What happened in past smog seasons, and why November matters

Two recent seasons give the range of what sellers should plan for.

• November 2024 (the bad case): Lahore's AQI went above 1,100 on November 6. Schools and government offices were closed in 18 Punjab districts, a Lahore court ordered markets to close by 8pm, and health officials said over 30,000 people sought treatment for breathing problems.
• October 2025 (the managed case): the Punjab government said it was handling smog without closing schools or restaurants, changed winter school hours instead, and warned that smog intensity was expected to rise from November to mid-December.

Then comes fog. In past winters the motorway police have closed motorway sections for low visibility. In December 2023, for example, the M-2 from Thokar Niaz to Khanqah Dogran and part of the M-3 were shut to all traffic. Courier line-haul trucks use these roads, so a closed motorway means parcels sit at a hub for a day or more.

Put the dates together and you get the important point for sellers: the worst smog window, November to mid-December, is the same window as the 11.11 sale and the wedding season. Your biggest order days may fall on the days when deliveries in Punjab are slowest.

How smog turns into returns on COD orders

Smog does not cancel orders by itself. It slows things down, and on COD, slow means returns. Three things happen on bad days.

1. Riders do fewer stops. Low visibility and checks on the road mean fewer deliveries per shift, so parcels roll over to the next day.
2. Line-haul runs late. Fog closures on the M-2 or M-3 hold intercity parcels at the hub, so a two-day delivery becomes four.
3. Customers cool off. A buyer who ordered on impulse from an ad is less likely to pay three or four days later, and more likely to say they never ordered.

Here is what that can cost. Example, with round numbers you should replace with your own: a Lahore store sends 40 COD orders a day across Punjab. Each failed order costs Rs 250 forward shipping, Rs 250 return shipping and about Rs 400 of ad spend that brought the order in, so Rs 900 lost per return.

In this example, ten extra percentage points of returns cost Rs 25,200 a week. Your own return rate in a smog week may move more or less. The point is to know your number before November, not after.

What to do this week

1. Check your own riders. If you deliver in Lahore with your own bikes, make sure every one has working headlights, rear lights, fog lights and indicators, as the October 7 directive requires. A bike stopped at a check is a day of deliveries lost.
2. Confirm every COD order before dispatch. On a slow week, a WhatsApp or call confirmation filters out the buyers who were never going to pay, before you spend shipping on them.
3. Tell buyers about delays up front. Add one line on your order confirmation for Punjab orders: delivery may take a day or two longer during smog and fog. A buyer who expects a delay is less likely to refuse.
4. Look at returns by city and by courier, not just the total. If Multan or Gujranwala returns jump while Lahore stays flat, shift that city to the courier that delivers it best, or ask for advance payment there.
5. Move 11.11 dispatch earlier. Plan to ship sale orders in the first days after the sale, before parcels pile up. Have packing material and stock ready in the first week of November.
6. Keep a fog plan. Save the motorway police helpline 130, and when a closure is announced, hold dispatch to affected routes for that day instead of letting parcels sit and age at the hub.

If you use Leopards, PostEx, DEX, Daewoo or Avix, RabbitROI's courier tracking updates automatically and shows return rates by courier, city and product, which makes point 4 quick to check.

Selling smog-season products: stay honest

Every season, demand appears for masks, air purifiers and similar items, and the official advice this week mentioned exactly those: IQAir advised masks, closed windows and air purifiers where possible, and the Punjab EPA advised vulnerable people to keep a nebuliser available if needed. If you sell in this category, sell what the product actually is.

• Only state a filter rating or test result that is printed on the product or its documents.
• Do not promise that a product prevents illness. Point buyers to official health advice and to a doctor for breathing problems.
• Price for higher return risk in November, when delivery is slower, rather than cutting margins to the bone.

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