Inflation October 2026 in Pakistan Falls to 9.6% and Petrol Drops Rs 30: What It Means for COD Sellers Before 11.11 (With a Rs Example)

What changed this week

Two pieces of news landed in the same week, one week before the 11.11 sale. On Monday, November 2, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported that inflation in October 2026 was 9.6 percent year on year, down from 10.3 percent in September. Then the government announced two fuel price cuts in two days, taking petrol to Rs 369.06 per litre. On October 9 petrol was Rs 398.96, so it is now Rs 29.90 cheaper than its October peak.

For an online seller this sounds like good news, and partly it is. But lower inflation does not mean prices are falling, the fuel relief is partly temporary, and the State Bank raised its policy rate the week before. This post puts the numbers side by side, works out what they do to your delivery cost and stock cost in rupees, and ends with a short list of things to do before 11.11.

Inflation in October 2026: the numbers in one table

These are the main PBS figures for October 2026, as reported by Business Recorder and Aaj News, with the September figure next to it. You can paste this table into a sheet and chart it.

Our reading of the numbers for a seller:

• Prices are still going up, just more slowly. A 1.1 percent rise in one month is still a rise. Something that cost Rs 2,500 in October 2025 costs about Rs 2,740 now if it followed the headline rate (2,500 x 1.096).
• The first four months of this financial year averaged 10.05 percent, against 4.79 percent in the same months last year. Your customers have had a much harder year than the one before it.
• Rural prices rose almost twice as fast as urban prices in October (1.5 percent against 0.8 percent in the month). If a big share of your COD orders go to small towns and villages, those customers felt more pressure last month than customers in Lahore or Karachi.
• Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, fell to 7.8 percent in cities. That is the part closest to clothes, shoes, home goods and gadgets, the things most online stores sell.

Which prices are still rising fastest?

The headline number hides big differences. These item level figures for October 2026 are from the PBS release as summarised by Pakistan Era. Urban figures unless stated.

Two things matter here for an online store. First, your customers are spending more on flour, chicken, gas and fuel, the things a family cannot skip. That leaves less room for a new suit, a pair of shoes or a gadget, which is why discretionary orders feel slower even when headline inflation falls. Second, transport costs have risen about 30 percent in a year in cities, and motor fuel about 41 percent. That is the cost your couriers and riders have been carrying, and it explains why delivery charges have crept up over the year.

Cotton cloth and footwear were listed among the items that rose in October, but the summary we found gives no percentage, so we do not put a number on them here.

Petrol and diesel: from the October peak to this week

Since July, OGRA has published fuel prices on working days rather than every two weeks. Here is how petrol and diesel moved through October and into November, from OGRA's daily sheets as listed by Pakistan Era and the cuts reported by ProPakistani.

Petrol is now Rs 29.90 below its October 9 peak, about 7.5 percent lower. Diesel has moved much less: it is Rs 11.44 below its October 30 level, about 2.8 percent lower, and still close to where it started the month.

That difference matters. Petrol runs the last mile, the motorbike riders who pick up and drop parcels inside a city. Diesel runs the long haul, the trucks that carry parcels from Karachi to Lahore or Peshawar. A courier's intercity cost has hardly come down, even though the petrol pump price looks much better.

Example: what the petrol cut saves you per delivery

Example, with assumed numbers. Replace them with your own. You run a store in Lahore and one rider delivers your local COD orders on a 70cc motorbike. Assume the bike does 40 km per litre, the rider covers 80 km a day (2 litres), makes 25 deliveries a day and works 26 days a month.

So the cut is real but small per parcel: about Rs 2.40 per delivery in this example. It is worth about Rs 1,555 a month to a seller with one rider. It is not enough on its own to lower your delivery charge, and it is not a reason to give away free delivery for 11.11 if you could not afford it last month.

Will couriers lower their rates?

Do not plan on it. Three reasons, all from this week's reports:

• Part of the relief is temporary. ProPakistani reported that a Rs 15 per litre petrol increase was due, and local refineries agreed to absorb about Rs 15 billion a month to keep petrol cheaper. The arrangement is for 30 days.
• About 70 percent of the country's petrol is imported, and import premiums rose from about 5 dollars to 20 dollars a barrel, according to the same report. Prices can turn back up quickly.
• Diesel, which moves parcels between cities, is down only about 2.8 percent from its late October level.

What you can reasonably do is check the fuel surcharge line on your courier invoice. Many agreements have a fuel surcharge as a percentage on top of the base rate. If it went up in October when petrol peaked, ask in writing whether it will be reviewed now that petrol is lower. A polite written question costs nothing and gives you a record.

The 12% policy rate and your 11.11 stock

The week before the inflation release, the State Bank raised its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 12 percent, effective October 27, 2026, according to a circular reported by PK Revenue. If you buy stock on a running finance line, a credit card or a business loan linked to KIBOR, your borrowing cost goes up with it.

Example, with assumed numbers. You borrow Rs 500,000 to buy 11.11 and wedding season stock. Assume your bank charges 15 percent a year now. One month of interest is Rs 6,250 (500,000 x 0.15 / 12). If your rate moves up 0.5 points to 15.5 percent, one month costs Rs 6,458.33, Rs 208.33 more. Small in one month, but stock that sits unsold for four months costs you Rs 25,833.33 in interest at the new rate.

The lesson for 11.11 is not to stop buying stock. It is to buy closer to what you will actually sell, and to sell slow stock first, because unsold stock now costs a little more to hold every month.

Should you cut prices for 11.11?

Lower inflation is not a signal to cut prices. Your own costs (stock, packaging, electricity, delivery, ads) went up over the year, and most of that has not reversed. What the numbers do suggest:

• Keep your regular price and run a clear, time-limited 11.11 offer instead. A sale ends; a permanent price cut does not.
• Offer value instead of a bigger discount: a bundle of two, or a small add-on at checkout. Customers who are watching every rupee respond to seeing what they save in Rs.
• Be careful with expensive orders going to small towns. Rural prices rose fastest in October, and a high-value COD parcel is more likely to be refused at the door when a family budget is tight. If you track return rates by city, compare your small-town RTO with your big-city RTO before 11.11. RabbitROI shows return rates by courier, city and product, if you want this without building the sheet yourself.
• Do not pass the petrol cut into a lower delivery charge yet. Wait until you see whether it lasts beyond the 30-day refinery arrangement.

What to do this week

1. Write down today's petrol price (Rs 369.06) next to the October 9 peak (Rs 398.96) in your cost sheet, so you have a record when you review delivery charges at the end of November.
2. Open your last courier invoice and find the fuel surcharge. If it rose in October, message your account manager and ask in writing whether it will be reviewed.
3. If you have borrowed for stock, ask your bank what your new rate is after October 27 and add the monthly interest to your cost per order.
4. List your slowest stock and put it into an 11.11 bundle or offer first, before discounting your best sellers.
5. Check your return rate by city for the last two months. If small-town orders return much more, add a confirmation call or message for high-value orders going there during 11.11.
6. Keep your regular prices. Run the 11.11 offer with a clear end date and show the saving in Rs.

FAQ