11.11 Discount Calculator for Pakistani COD Sellers: A Copy-Paste Sheet to Find the Biggest Discount You Can Afford (With a Rs Example)

Why you need an 11.11 discount calculator this week

11.11 is on Wednesday, and this 11.11 discount calculator is for one question every Pakistani COD seller is asking right now: how much discount can I give without selling at a loss? Most sellers pick a number that sounds good, like 20% or 30% off, because the big marketplaces are shouting about sales. Daraz held a Seller Summit in Karachi with more than 1,000 sellers and its first Brands Summit in Lahore with representatives from 200 brands in October, ahead of its 11.11 festival. Last year Daraz said more than 48,000 sellers beat their previous 11.11 sales. Your customers will see those offers, and they will compare.

The problem is that a COD discount does not cost you only the rupees you cut from the price. Every returned parcel still costs you shipping both ways, and every order still costs ad money. So the safe discount depends on your return rate and your ad cost, not on what everyone else is offering. Below is a sheet you can copy into Google Sheets in five minutes, a worked example in rupees, and a short plan for the next three days.

What goes into the sheet?

Make one row per product. These are the inputs, all per shipped order, in rupees unless marked as a percent:

Use your own delivery rate, not a guess. For a sense of scale only: OrderNation's 2026 study of about 127,000 parcels from one large Pakistani online retailer found 19.4% of shipped parcels came back, and it took a median of 21.7 days for a failed COD delivery to show in the books. That is one retailer, not the market. If you do not have per-product numbers, use your store average and mark the row so you remember to fix it later.

The formulas to paste

Put the inputs in columns A to I starting on row 2, then paste these into row 2 and drag down:

How the break-even formula works, in plain words: every returned parcel loses forward shipping, the return charge and packing. Add the ad cost. That total has to be paid by the parcels that do get delivered, so divide it by the delivery rate. Then add what a delivered parcel itself costs you: product, shipping and packing. The answer is the price at which you make nothing. If column L comes out negative, your normal price is already too close to the floor and that product should not be discounted at all.

If your courier charges a COD collection fee as a percent of the parcel value, or tax is deducted from your COD payments, add those to column D as a rupee amount for this price. Check the exact rates with your courier and your accountant.

Example: how much discount on a Rs 3,000 product?

Example (illustrative numbers, not real store or courier data). A seller sells a product at Rs 3,000. Product cost Rs 1,100, forward shipping Rs 250, return charge Rs 200, packing Rs 50. 80% of shipped parcels get delivered. On a normal day ad cost is Rs 400 per shipped order; for the sale week the seller assumes Rs 500, because many brands are bidding for the same buyers.

• Normal profit per shipped order: 0.8 x (3,000 - 1,100 - 250 - 50) - 0.2 x (250 + 200 + 50) - 400 = 1,280 - 100 - 400 = Rs 780.
• Break-even price in the sale week: (0.2 x 500 + 500) / 0.8 + 1,400 = 750 + 1,400 = Rs 2,150. So any discount above Rs 850 (28%) loses money on every shipped order.
• Floor price if the seller wants at least Rs 400 per shipped order: 2,150 + 400 / 0.8 = Rs 2,650. Max discount Rs 350, about 12%.

The second number is the one most sellers miss. A 30% sale on this product looks normal next to marketplace banners, but here it means paying the customer to take the parcel. Now the bigger question: how many more orders do you need for a discount to be worth it? On a normal day, 100 shipped orders make Rs 78,000. This table shows what the sale needs to match that, at the original 80% delivery rate and if sale returns climb to 25%, which is common with impulse buys.

Read it slowly. At 10% off, the seller needs 78% more shipped orders than a normal day just to make the same money. At 20% off, nearly four times as many. At 25% off, almost ten times, and if returns rise even a little, the profit is gone. A discount is a bet that volume will jump. The sheet tells you how big that jump has to be before you place the bet.

Which offers cost less than a straight discount?

Because COD costs are mostly per parcel, offers that add to the parcel usually cost you less than cutting the price of a single item:

Run each offer through the same sheet: for a 2-pack, use the bundle price in column O, double the product cost, and use the real shipping for the heavier parcel. If you sell through a one-page COD order form, the offer should sit next to the name and address fields, priced in rupees. RabbitROI's Shopify app does this with bundles and quantity offers, 1-tick order bumps and upsells on a one-page COD order form.

Keep your sale honest: what the CCP has warned about

The Competition Commission of Pakistan has acted on discount advertising more than once under Section 10 of the Competition Act, which covers deceptive marketing. In December 2023 it warned brands after finding "flat" discounts that did not apply to all items and outside banners showing bigger discounts than the prices inside. In September 2024 it issued notices to 20 brands over "up to" sale discounts where the biggest discount was on a few unpopular items. For an online store the same logic applies:

• The crossed-out "compare at" price must be a price you actually charged, not one raised just before the sale.
• If you say "up to 40% off", make sure real, popular products carry that discount, not only one leftover size.
• Put conditions (minimum order, which products, end time) in readable text near the offer.
• Confirm the sale price on the WhatsApp or phone confirmation so the rider is not met with an argument at the door.

This is general information, not legal advice. Honest pricing also lowers refusals at the door: a buyer who feels tricked is a buyer who does not pay the rider.

What to do before Wednesday: a 3-day plan

1. Sunday or Monday: copy the sheet, fill one row for each of your top 10 products by sales, and pull the delivery rate for each from your courier data.
2. Monday: set the minimum profit per shipped order you will accept. Discount only the products where column L is clearly positive.
3. Monday: for products with a small or negative column L, replace the discount with a 2-pack, a free gift or free delivery above a threshold, and check each in column N.
4. Tuesday: update compare-at prices only to real previous prices, set the sale to end at a clear time, and brief whoever confirms orders on the exact sale prices.
5. Wednesday: watch ad cost per shipped order through the day. If it climbs well above what you put in column H, re-run the sheet and pause the products that fall below the floor.
6. Three to four weeks later: once returns are in, compare real profit per shipped order with the sheet. Use the real numbers for Black Friday and the next sale.

That last step is where most sellers lose the lesson, because sale returns arrive weeks after the sale. RabbitROI shows return (RTO) rates by courier, city and product, and net profit per ad campaign after returns, ad spend, product cost and shipping, which is the real check on whether the sale made money.

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